Is Bayesian thinking a sham?

3-Second Blueprint (English)

1. Critics often dismiss informal Bayesianism as ordinary intuitive reasoning disguised behind mathematical jargon and false precision.
2. Genuine Bayesian thinking assigns calibrated degrees of uncertainty even to beliefs where people usually default to binary certainty.
3. Instead of merely asking if evidence fits a belief, Bayesians compare how likely that evidence would appear if the belief were false.